International rice prices have been falling steadily since the start of the year, driven by intense competition among exporters. Prices have also been pressured by slower import demand, particularly from Indonesia, where strong domestic production has reduced the need for purchases from abroad.
On the other side projections for global rice stocks at the end of the 2025/26 marketing season indicate a continued accumulation, with world carryover inventories expected to reach 210 million ton, up 0.6 percent from their record opening levels. China’s reserves are projected to rise to a five-year high of over 100 million ton, supported by a strong domestic harvest and moderate local demand.
With expectations of a strong rice harvest globally, particularly in India, and higher carryover stocks, international prices have started to ease. India, the world’s largest rice producer, is anticipated to significantly influence the market, as it has removed export restrictions that were previously imposed on various rice varieties in 2022 and 2023. This is likely to reduce India’s ending stocks to around 50.5 million ton.
Amid the anticipated supply surge from India, Pakistan’s FOB offers for broken rice are currently at USD 305–310 per ton, while long-grain IRRI-6 with 5% broken is quoted at USD 320–330 per ton. Buyer activity remains limited, as many traders are cautious, expecting further price pressure in November, coinciding with the Indian harvest season.
