Global rice trade is projected to increase by 1.4 percent in 2025 (January–December) reaching a record 60.5 million ton. The rise in world imports is largely attributed to stronger demand from African countries, while Asia’s total rice imports are expected to decline by 8.5 percent from the 2024 all-time high, falling to 26.3 million ton.
Within Asia, Indonesia which accounted for a major share of the region’s imports in 2024—is anticipated to reduce its purchases by 3.7 million ton to just 0.9 million ton in 2025. This reduction follows a recovery in domestic production and renewed efforts toward self-sufficiency in rice.
On the export side, the expected growth in global trade will likely be driven by higher shipments from India, supported by ample exportable supplies resulting from successive bumper harvests and the removal of all export restrictions.
Meanwhile, world rice utilization in 2025/26 is projected to grow by 1.7 percent, reaching a record 549.1 million ton. This increase is primarily due to rising food consumption and greater use in non-food industrial sectors. Global food use of rice is expected to expand by 1.3 percent to 439.8 million ton, supported by population growth and steady demand across most regions. In addition, non-food industrial utilization such as rice-based ethanol productions forecast to rise sharply by 8.8 percent to 23.8 million ton, particularly in India, where large government reserves and continued strong harvests are likely to sustain this trend.
