Currently, sugar mills are demanding sugarcane at a rate of PKR 400 per maund, while farmers are protesting and seeking a fixed rate of PKR 500–550 per maund. Farmers claim that last year the sugar rate was PKR 135 per kilogram, and despite the current market rate rising to PKR 210 per kilogram, they have been asking to sell at nearly the same rate, which they consider unfair.
This year, sugar output is expected to rise due to an increase in cultivation area in Punjab, although the sugarcane area in Sindh has decreased. Nevertheless, yields in Sindh remain good, which may help offset some of the area loss. Weather conditions in Sindh have generally been favorable for sugarcane growth so far, with adequate rainfall and moderate temperatures supporting healthy crop development.
If production estimates had fully materialized at 84 million tons of sugarcane, this would have translated into approximately 6.8 million tons of sugar. The average recovery rate for Punjab sugarcane is around 9 percent, while for Sindh it is about 8.7 percent, additionally there are factoring losses as well during harvesting, transport, and milling. However, with domestic consumption projected to reach around 7 million tons, a shortfall in supply is already anticipated.
Also, there is growing concern over flooding in Punjab, which was projected to have affected more than 10 million tons of sugarcane, potentially reducing production. If the estimated flood-affected area materializes as expected, it is likely to exacerbate the sugar shortage in the domestic market, potentially driving prices higher.
Crop arrivals are about to begin, as the Sindh sugarcane crop is ready for harvesting, while in Punjab the crop is expected to be ready in about 15 days. As harvesting continues, it will provide more clarity regarding the overall production for this season.
