The sugarcane crushing season started late this year, and adverse weather conditions have further disrupted supply to sugar mills. At the beginning of the season, cane arrivals were almost a month behind schedule. This resulted in slightly lower cane weight for farmers, although sugar recovery showed some improvement.
In Punjab, unfavorable weather affected harvesting and transportation, limiting mills’ access to sugarcane. Forecasts of continued rain and fog may cause further delays in the coming days. Despite good per-acre yields and higher overall production compared to last year, no major improvement in sugar recovery is expected from this point onward.
Weekly Sugar Price Movement
Sugar prices declined sharply last week by PKR 800–1,300 per 100 kg bag across Pakistan.
- Upper Punjab: Joharabad fell from PKR 16,400 to 15,200
- Central Punjab: JK Sugar (Kacha Khuh) dropped from 15,475 to 14,600.
- Lower Punjab: JDW declined from 15,300 to 14,400.
- Sindh: Prices fell sharply after crushing began, with mills trading around PKR 14,300–14,500.
Forward vs Spot Market
The price gap between the forward and spot market remains narrow. January forward contracts are trading near PKR 13,900, while spot prices hover around PKR 14,300. Daily price declines of PKR 100–150 per bag are being reported. Mills are actively selling stocks at current rates to lock in profits.
Production, Recovery & Stocks
Due to favorable weather earlier in the year, average sugarcane yields increased by 300–400 maunds per acre compared to last season. As of 8 December, Punjab sugar mills crushed 5.814 million tons of sugarcane, producing 469,223 metric tons of sugar at an average recovery of 8.88%, higher than last year. Faisalabad Division led crushing activity, followed by Bahawalpur and Sargodha.
Along with the current production mills have 112,000 tons of carry-forward stock, total available sugar stands at 581,338 metric tons. Of this, 315,766 metric tons have been sold, while 265,573 metric tons remain in stock—adequate to meet near-term market demand. The current sales-to-production ratio is 54.32%.
