Wheat prices in Pakistan have dropped sharply following the arrival of the new crop, with market rates declining by nearly Rs700 per 100 kg within a single week. The sudden correction in prices comes as fresh wheat from Sindh begins entering the market, increasing supply and shifting market sentiment.
According to officials, wheat cultivation area in Sindh has expanded significantly in the 2025–26 season. The total sowing area increased from 3,086,337 acres in 2024-25 to 3,668,182 acres in 2025-26, reflecting renewed confidence among growers in the provincial government’s agricultural support policies.
Along with the expanded cultivation area, favorable crop conditions have also improved yield prospects. Early field assessments indicate that wheat yield could rise by 15% to 20% compared with last year, which may lead to a substantial increase in overall production.
As a result of the anticipated supply surge, wheat prices have broken sharply in the market. Market participants now expect wheat prices to settle around Rs7,500 to Rs7,800 per 100 kg in the near term as new arrivals increase.
Unlike previous years, the government has not yet officially announced a procurement plan or support price for the current season. However, the Sindh government is reportedly planning to purchase between 0.8 and 1.2 million tons of wheat during the 2025-26 harvest season.
Local farmers have demanded a support price of Rs4,000 per 40 kg, citing higher production costs. However, the provincial government has aligned with the federal benchmark of Rs3,500 per 40 kg, aiming to balance farmer support with consumer price stability.
Market analysts believe that if the government actively enters the market with procurement at the announced rate, wheat prices could rebound quickly. In such a scenario, traders estimate that wheat prices may recover to around Rs8,700 per 100 kg.
For now, the wheat market remains under pressure due to increasing arrivals, higher acreage, and expectations of a larger crop, keeping traders cautious and buyers on the sidelines.
