Pakistan Sugar Production Posts Surplus

Pakistan’s sugar market is currently showing a clear surplus position during the ongoing season, with production and availability significantly exceeding domestic consumption.

Total sugar availability is estimated at around 7.6 million tons, including approximately 7.3 million tons produced from sugarcane, 0.1 million tons from beet, 0.1 million tons as carry-forward stock, and 0.1 million tons through imports. In comparison, annual domestic consumption stands at nearly 6.5 million tons, resulting in a surplus of about 1.1 million tons.

Even if 0.4 to 0.5 million tons are exported, the country is still expected to retain a surplus of around 0.6 million tons. This indicates that total exports during the season will remain well below the overall surplus level. Given the current supply situation, the market is likely to remain under pressure, with prices facing downward trends due to excess availability. Future market direction will largely depend on export policies and domestic demand patterns, but current data clearly indicates a surplus-driven market.

London Sugar futures rose toward $462/MT, the highest level since mid-Feb 2026, largely driven by a renewed increase in oil prices amid the ongoing Middle East conflict. This equates to approximately Rs 130/kg, while domestic prices remain around Rs 135/kg, indicating that prices would need to decline to make exports viable. Indian sugar is being offered at around $450 per ton on a free-on-board (FOB) basis, with countries including Sri Lanka and African nations such as Djibouti, Tanzania, and Somalia booking shipments for April and May.

At the same time, developments in the global sugar market may provide some support. The UAE-based Gulf Sugar refinery, which typically exports around 1.5 million tons annually, has temporarily halted exports due to the ongoing geopolitical conflict. This disruption could tighten global supply in the short term and may influence international price dynamics.