India has recently raised the import duty on yellow peas to 30%, while keeping the chickpea duty unchanged at 10%, with the current tariff structure remaining in place until March 2026. This change has been interpreted positively by the Pakistani market, as it has led to an improvement in local chickpea prices.
🟢 Positive for Pakistan Chickpeas
- Higher yellow pea duty reduces substitution pressure
- Chickpeas become relatively more attractive in Indian demand
- 📈 Result: support for local chickpea prices in Pakistan
🟡 Stable Chickpea Import Flow in India
- India continues chickpea imports mainly from Australia
- 📦 Estimated contracts: ~300,000 MT already booked
👉 Interpretation:
- India is actively managing domestic supply
- Ensuring availability ahead of winter demand peak
❄️ Seasonal Demand Factor – Winter Effect
- 🌡️ Winter increases chickpea consumption in India
- 🍲 Higher demand expected in food and processing sectors
- 📦 Likely increase in import requirement
👉 Result:
- 📈 Potential tightening in global chickpea supply
- 📈 Supportive pressure on international prices
🌍 Global Price Transmission Effect
If India increases imports:
- 🌏 Global chickpea demand rises
- 🚢 Australian exports tighten
- 📈 International prices strengthen
👉 Spillover impact:
- 🟢 Pakistan domestic market may see price support
- 🟢 Import parity levels could rise
⚖️ Market Balance Summary
| Factor | Impact |
|---|---|
| Higher yellow pea duty | 🟢 Chickpea supportive |
| Stable chickpea duty | ⚖️ Neutral supply policy |
| India import demand (300k MT) | 📈 Bullish global signal |
| Winter demand increase | 📈 Additional support |
🔚 Conclusion
The increase in India’s yellow pea duty, combined with steady chickpea import demand, is creating a constructive outlook for international chickpea prices. As winter demand rises, both India and global buyers may strengthen imports, potentially supporting price recovery in Pakistan’s chickpea market.
The Agri-Crop editorial team comprises commodity market analysts, rice trade specialists, and agriculture industry professionals based in Pakistan. We track daily price movements, export data, and policy developments across Pakistan’s key agricultural sectors.
