International rice prices have been on a steady downward trend since the beginning of the year. The decline is mainly driven by strong competition among exporting countries and weaker import demand in key markets.
One of the major factors behind reduced global buying interest is the situation in Indonesia, where improved domestic production has significantly lowered the need for imports. As a result, overall demand in the international market has slowed, putting additional pressure on prices.
Rising Global Rice Stocks Expected in 2025/26
Despite weaker price conditions, global rice inventories are projected to continue increasing during the 2025/26 marketing season. World carryover stocks are expected to reach around 210 million tons, reflecting a 0.6% increase compared to already record-high opening levels.
China remains the largest holder of rice reserves, with stocks forecast to climb to a five-year high of more than 100 million tons. This increase is supported by strong domestic production and relatively stable internal consumption, which has limited stock drawdowns.
The overall buildup in global reserves highlights a well-supplied market environment, which is further contributing to the softening of international rice prices.
India’s Role in Shaping Global Rice Market Trends
India, the world’s largest rice producer and exporter, continues to play a central role in global price movements. With expectations of a strong upcoming harvest and the removal of export restrictions that were previously imposed in 2022 and 2023, India is set to significantly increase its presence in the global market.
The country’s improved export availability is expected to ease global supply concerns but may also add further downward pressure on international prices. As a result, India’s ending rice stocks are projected to decline to around 50.5 million tons.
This shift is likely to influence trade flows, especially in Asian and African markets that depend heavily on Indian rice supplies.
Pakistan Export Prices and Market Activity
In the context of global supply expansion, Pakistan’s export prices for rice remain under pressure. Current Free on Board (FOB) offers for broken rice are reported in the range of USD 305–310 per ton, while long-grain IRRI-6 rice with 5% broken is priced around USD 320–330 per ton.
However, trading activity in the market remains relatively subdued. Many buyers are adopting a cautious approach, anticipating further price declines in the coming months. Market participants expect additional downward pressure around November, coinciding with the peak of India’s harvest season and increased global supply availability.
Conclusion
Overall, the global rice market is currently experiencing a phase of excess supply driven by strong production, rising stock levels, and increased export availability from major producing countries such as India. At the same time, weaker import demand—particularly from key Asian buyers—has added further pressure on international prices.
While lower prices may benefit importing nations in the short term, they also pose challenges for exporting countries by reducing profit margins and increasing competition in global markets. Going forward, the direction of rice prices will largely depend on the pace of global demand recovery, harvest outcomes in major producing regions, and policy decisions regarding trade and exports.
The Agri-Crop editorial team comprises commodity market analysts, rice trade specialists, and agriculture industry professionals based in Pakistan. We track daily price movements, export data, and policy developments across Pakistan’s key agricultural sectors.
