Global rice trade is projected to grow by around 1.4% in 2025 (January–December), reaching an all-time high of approximately 60.5 million tons. The expansion in international rice trade is mainly driven by increased import demand from African countries, while Asia is expected to show a decline in overall imports compared to the previous year.
Decline in Asian Rice Imports After Record Year
Asia, which accounts for the largest share of global rice consumption, is expected to reduce its imports by 8.5% in 2025, bringing total purchases down to 26.3 million tons. This follows an exceptionally high import volume recorded in 2024.
A significant contributor to this decline is Indonesia, which was one of the largest importers in the region last year. The country is expected to sharply reduce its imports by around 3.7 million tons, bringing total purchases down to approximately 0.9 million tons in 2025. This reduction is largely linked to improved domestic production and government-led efforts to achieve greater self-sufficiency in rice supply.
Export Growth Driven by India
On the export side, global rice trade growth is expected to be strongly supported by India. The country is likely to increase its shipments due to abundant exportable stocks, which have been built up through successive bumper harvests.
Additionally, the removal of export restrictions has further strengthened India’s position in the global rice market, enabling it to meet rising international demand more effectively.
Rising Global Rice Consumption
World rice utilization is projected to continue its upward trend in 2025/26, increasing by 1.7% to reach a record 549.1 million tons. This growth is being driven by both population expansion and rising food demand across developing and emerging economies.
Food consumption remains the dominant use of rice globally and is expected to rise by 1.3% to about 439.8 million tons. This steady increase reflects rice’s role as a staple food for a large portion of the global population, particularly in Asia and Africa.
Increasing Industrial Use of Rice
In addition to food consumption, non-food industrial usage of rice is also expected to grow significantly. Industrial utilization, including rice-based ethanol production, is forecast to increase by 8.8%, reaching 23.8 million tons.
This trend is especially prominent in countries like India, where strong government stock levels and sustained production have encouraged greater use of rice in biofuel and industrial applications.
Outlook
Overall, the global rice market is expected to remain dynamic in 2025, with shifting import patterns across regions and strong growth in both consumption and industrial usage. While Asia is moving toward self-sufficiency, rising demand from Africa and strong export performance from major producers like India will continue to shape global trade flows.
The Agri-Crop editorial team comprises commodity market analysts, rice trade specialists, and agriculture industry professionals based in Pakistan. We track daily price movements, export data, and policy developments across Pakistan’s key agricultural sectors.
