Pakistan will produce around 9.12 million tons of rice in the 2025/26 marketing year, down from 9.7 million tons last year. Adverse weather conditions, including flooding and excessive rainfall during the growing season, have caused significant crop damage in several key rice-producing regions and reduced overall output.
Agriculture experts note that unpredictable monsoon patterns have particularly affected standing crops at critical growth stages and lowered overall yield potential. As a result, producers expect total output to remain below last year’s level despite continued cultivation efforts.
Global Rice Production Expected to Increase in 2025/26
Global producers will increase rice production moderately in the 2025/26 marketing season. They will raise total output to approximately 556.4 million tons (milled basis), up from 546.6 million tons in 2024/25. This reflects a year-on-year increase of about 0.9%, as farmers benefit from improved conditions and expand cultivation in major regions.
Better weather conditions in several key rice-growing countries, along with improved farming practices and stable input availability in some regions, are supporting this overall rise in production.
Latin America and the Caribbean Drive Global Growth
Latin American and Caribbean producers are expected to contribute significantly to global rice production growth and raise regional output to a record 20.5 million tons, marking a strong increase of about 9.1% compared to the previous season.
Countries such as Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay are driving this growth by increasing their production levels. Farmers in these countries are benefiting from favorable climatic conditions, including timely rainfall and suitable temperature ranges, which have supported healthy crop development throughout the growing season.
In addition to weather advantages, producers have improved agronomic practices and expanded cultivation areas in some regions, which have further boosted expected yields.
Outlook
Weather challenges will reduce Pakistan’s rice production, but the global rice market will still grow modestly in 2025/26. Strong output from Latin America and stable production in other regions will help balance global supply.
However, ongoing climate variability remains a key risk factor for rice-producing countries and highlights the importance of improved water management and climate-resilient farming practices in the coming years.
The Agri-Crop editorial team comprises commodity market analysts, rice trade specialists, and agriculture industry professionals based in Pakistan. We track daily price movements, export data, and policy developments across Pakistan’s key agricultural sectors.
