Pakistan’s broken rice exports are facing their toughest year since 2022. Monthly volumes have recovered from September’s lows, but the bigger picture is concerning. Exports for the current fiscal year are running at nearly half the pace of last year. Indian competition is fierce. Margins are thin. And mills across the country are sitting idle. This article breaks down the numbers, explains the causes, and outlines what needs to change for exports to recover.
October 2025: A Monthly Recovery That Masks a Bigger Problem
Pakistan exported 51.24 thousand metric tons (kmt) of broken rice in October 2025. That is a strong jump from 6.5 kmt in September — nearly an eightfold increase month-on-month.
On the surface, that looks like good news. But zoom out and the picture changes.
In October 2024, Pakistan exported 121 kmt of broken rice. This October’s figure of 51.24 kmt is less than half of that. The monthly recovery is real, but it does not come close to matching last year’s performance.
The cumulative picture is even more telling. During the current fiscal year 2025–26, Pakistan has shipped a total of 120 kmt of broken rice. In the same period last year, the country shipped 230 kmt. That is a decline of roughly 50% year-on-year.
A Historic Pace Now Under Threat
To understand how serious this is, consider Pakistan’s track record.
Since 2022, Pakistan has consistently exported around 1 million metric tons (mmt) of broken rice annually. That consistent performance made Pakistan a reliable supplier in global broken rice markets — particularly in Africa and Southeast Asia.
This year, that streak is at risk. The fiscal year has started at half the pace of last year. Maintaining the 1 mmt annual target requires a significant acceleration in the months ahead. At current rates, that looks unlikely without a meaningful shift in market conditions.
Fiscal year 2023–24 was a landmark year for Pakistan’s rice sector. Exporters shipped 6.01 million tons of rice in total — covering both Basmati and non-Basmati varieties. Non-Basmati rice contributed the largest share in Pakistan’s history. Total export revenue crossed USD 3.93 billion. That was a record-breaking performance that established Pakistan as a major force in global rice trade.
This year, that momentum has stalled.
Why Exports Have Fallen So Sharply
Several factors are working against Pakistan’s broken rice exporters simultaneously. Each one alone would create pressure. Together, they are creating a serious competitiveness crisis.
1. Indian Competition Is Intensifying
India expects to produce 150 million metric tons of rice this season. It also holds substantial carryover stocks from previous years. Indian exporters are sitting on large volumes and need to move them.
To do that, they are offering broken rice at $295 per metric ton — an aggressive price point that undercuts most competitors. Even at these low prices, global demand remains soft. Buyers are cautious. They are not rushing to stock up even when prices are low.
Pakistani exporters simply cannot match the Indian offer at current domestic price levels. Local market prices leave exporters out of the money. Accepting international orders at $295/MT while paying higher domestic prices means locking in a guaranteed loss. Most exporters are choosing to wait rather than sell at a loss.
2. Domestic Prices Are Too High to Export Profitably
This is the core of the problem. Pakistani broken rice prices in the domestic market have risen — partly due to strong feed miller demand, as covered in our previous market update. Feed manufacturers turned to broken rice as a corn substitute after flooding damaged the corn crop and the government banned wheat in animal feed.
That domestic demand surge pushed prices above export parity. Exporters who buy locally and sell internationally are absorbing losses on every ton. Until domestic prices fall or international prices rise, the export math does not work.
3. Mills Are Operating Below Capacity
Limited export demand has a direct effect on milling activity. When exporters are not buying, mills have no reason to run at full capacity. Many rice milling factories across Pakistan are currently not operating or running at reduced levels.
This creates a secondary problem. Even if international demand picks up suddenly, Pakistan may not have sufficient milled stock ready to fulfill orders quickly. Idle mills mean less supply available for export — which could cause Pakistan to miss opportunities even when market conditions improve.
What Needs to Change for Exports to Recover
There is no single fix. Recovery requires a combination of market shifts and domestic adjustments.
International prices need to rise. If global broken rice prices move above current levels, the gap between domestic costs and export returns will narrow. Exporters will find it viable to re-enter the market. Even a move from $295/MT to $320–$330/MT could unlock significant Pakistani export volumes.
Domestic prices need to soften. As corn supplies recover and feed millers reduce their broken rice purchases, domestic price pressure should ease. That would allow exporters to source locally at more competitive rates and restore their margins.
India’s pricing power needs to moderate. India’s aggressive $295/MT offer is only sustainable as long as it has large surplus stocks to clear. Once those stocks reduce, Indian exporters will pull back on discounting. That will create room for Pakistani rice to compete on price.
Mills need to restart operations. Export recovery requires ready supply. Millers need confidence that orders are coming before they restart operations. Government support — through export incentives or credit facilities — could help mills stay operational during slow periods and maintain readiness for when demand returns.
Pakistan vs. India: The Competitive Benchmark
Pakistan’s broken rice export performance for the rest of this fiscal year will largely depend on one factor — its ability to compete with India.
India is not just a competitor. It is the price setter for broken rice in most global markets. When India offers aggressively, every other exporter must respond or lose market share. Pakistan has historically competed on quality and reliability. But quality advantages matter less when the price gap is too wide for buyers to ignore.
Exporters are watching global price movements closely. Any uptick in international broken rice prices — driven by softer Indian supply or stronger global demand — could quickly revive Pakistan’s export activity. The country has the infrastructure, the crop, and the trade relationships to recover fast. What it needs is a window of price competitiveness to step back in.
Outlook: A Difficult Quarter Ahead
The next few months will be challenging for Pakistan’s broken rice exporters. India’s harvest is peaking. Global supply is rising. Domestic prices remain above export parity.
Unless conditions shift — either through a domestic price correction or a rebound in global prices — Pakistan’s broken rice exports will likely remain below last year’s pace through the end of 2025.
The long-term fundamentals remain intact. Pakistan’s 1 mmt annual export track record is built on real capacity and real relationships. But the short-term outlook demands caution, patience, and close monitoring of the India price benchmark.
The Agri-Crop editorial team comprises commodity market analysts, rice trade specialists, and agriculture industry professionals based in Pakistan. We track daily price movements, export data, and policy developments across Pakistan’s key agricultural sectors.
